Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
Open Access

Abstract

The influence of climate change on the levels of 4 agricultural chemicals (butachlor, carbofuran, chlorpyrifos, and endosulfan) in surface water was predicted with a region-specific multimedia fate model, KPOP-CC. The model divides land surface into 703 watersheds based on the hydrological characteristics using Geographical Information System. Simulation was performed with 3-hour meteorological data generated from simulations for the period from 1956 to 2100 with Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Annual average concentrations for the 4 pesticides in cropland in watersheds throughout the country show gradually decreasing trend for the period 2006-2100 especially with the RCP 8.5 scenario. It is due to increase in solid run off during the application period of the pesticides. The increased solid run off results from increase in precipitation intensity and decrease in frequencies of rain event especially in May, Jun, July and August under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual average concentrations in surface water generally show a long term trend of decline in most of the watersheds. Contrarily, variances of the top 10% of 3-day averaged concentrations significantly increase in 60%, 63%, 83% and 50% of 703 watersheds for butachlor, carbofuran, chlorpyrifos, and endosulfan, respectively. The characteristics of watersheds including hydrological network, morphometry, land use, and soil properties also contribute to the growth of the variance. The results demonstrate that climate change can increase short term health risk by agricultural pesticides to both human and aquatic ecosystem.

Biography

Lia Chang has studied Atmospheric science and Environmental studies, and she is a PhD student at Seoul National University in South Korea.