Figure 3: The marginal posterior of a0 under the NPP for increasing effect size . For each figure, πa0= U (0; 1) (i.e., µa0= 0.50 and σa0= .2887), n = n0 = 100, σ2= 1, = 0 and takes on four increasing values: (a) = 0,
(b) = 0.10, (c) = 0.25, and (d) = 0.50. As y increases, reflecting increasing disparity between the studies, converges to 0, thus downweighting the historical data.