Table 1

Year	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	Mean	S.D.
Annual Mean Temp	12.86	11.4	11.91	12.57	12.77	12.27	12.32	12.3	0.51
All Species
r model-observed	0.93	0.54	0.82	0.91	0.83	0.92	0.85	0.83	0.13
r model-temp	0.97	0.93	0.93	0.98	0.97	0.89	0.94	0.94	0.03
r temp-observed	0.96	0.76	0.93	0.84	0.75	0.94	0.77	0.85	0.09
P-value*	0.28	0	0.03	0.10	0.02	0.11	0.01
Native Species
r model-observed	0.95	0.62	0.89	0.94	0.92	0.95	0.86	0.88	0.12
r model-temp	0.98	0.94	0.93	0.98	0.98	0.89	0.95	0.95	0.03
r temp-observed	0.95	0.82	0.91	0.87	0.86	0.87	0.82	0.87	0.05
P-value	0.45	0.01	0.37	0.72	0.3	0.58	0.01
Non-native Species
r model-observed	0.59	0.31	0.47	0.75	0.51	0.82	0.77	0.60	0.19
r model-temp	0.92	0.91	0.93	0.99	0.96	0.89	0.91	0.93	0.03
r temp-observed	0.59	0.54	0.7	0.66	0.38	0.93	0.55	0.62	0.17
P-value	0.02	0	0	0.05	0	0.08	0.06

* P-values calculated by [34]. Significant (α = 0.05) values in bold.

Table 1: Annual mean temperature (°C), and correlation coefficients for 1) predicted and empirical recruitment richness, 2) predicted richness and temperature, and 3) empirical recruitment richness and temperature.