| Δt months |
Mean probability (S.E.), % |
| P(NoED|C) |
P(TrueED|C) |
P(OverD|C) |
| Age at first screening t0 = 40 |
| 6 |
19.49 (7.74) |
77.03 (9.38) |
3.48 (2.10) |
| 12 |
39.92 (5.24) |
57.16 (6.27) |
2.92 (2.04) |
| 24 |
61.80 (4.39) |
35.90 (3.80) |
2.30 (1.88) |
| Age at first screening t0 = 50 |
| 6 |
19.30 (7.61) |
76.95 (9.37) |
3.74 (2.25) |
| 12 |
39.56 (5.16) |
57.29 (6.24) |
3.14 (2.19) |
| 24 |
61.30 (4.49) |
36.21 (3.81) |
2.49 (2.03) |
| Age at first screening t0 = 60 |
| 6 |
18.87 (7.29) |
76.49 (9.46) |
4.63 (2.76) |
| 12 |
38.76 (4.97) |
57.34 (6.26) |
3.90 (2.70) |
| 24 |
60.17 (4.74) |
36.73 (3.82) |
3.10 (2.51) |
Event C = {Diagnosed cancer cases: including both interval-incident and screen-detected cases}. The estimated conditional probability was calculated by  , i=2, 3, 4, for each of the posterior samples, in percentage. |
