Model pD DIC M1: All variables fixed 21808.642 24.659 21857.960 M2: All variables fixed + spatial effect 21728.681 47.053 21822.787 M3: All variables fixed + spatial + community + house hold effect 20622.962 425.056 21473.073 M4:All categorical fixed + nonlinear of continuous variable + spatial + community + house hold effect 20291.970 440.535 21173.041

Table 1: Summary of diagnostic accuracy of the four models.