Mean SD 2.5% 50% 97.5% CT Overall b0 3.263 0.503 2.154 3.339 3.963 b1 0.002 0.053 -0.094 0.005 0.094 μ 4.271 0.008 4.255 4.270 4.288 σ2 0.022 0.002 0.018 0.022 0.027 λ 0.270 0.053 0.163 0.275 0.370 α 2.703 0.496 1.899 2.643 3.822 CT Male b0 2.923 0.622 1.705 2.950 3.939 b1 0.002 0.058 -0.095 0.003 0.096 μ 4.268 0.010 4.249 4.268 4.288 σ2 0.021 0.003 0.016 0.020 0.026 λ 0.306 0.079 0.140 0.312 0.452 α 2.713 0.601 1.715 2.672 3.903 CT Female b0 3.247 0.516 2.182 3.330 3.968 b1 0.017 0.054 -0.091 0.026 0.096 μ 4.276 0.014 4.248 4.275 4.303 σ2 0.026 0.004 0.019 0.026 0.034 λ 0.194 0.059 0.090 0.189 0.330 α 2.983 0.562 1.945 2.948 3.934

Table 1: Bayesian posterior estimates for the 6 parameters in NLST data CT arm.