OR (95% CI)

Beta (logOR)a (95% CI)

Male sex

1.98 (1.48, 2.64)

0.68 (0.39, 0.97)

Age in years

 

 

35-44

1

0

45-54

1.69 (1.18, 2.43)

0.53 (0.17, 0.89)

55-64

2.24 (1.47, 3.40)

0.81 (0.39, 1.23)

65-74

2.92 (1.82, 4.68)

1.07 (0.60, 1.54)

Number of severe sunburns ages 2-18

 

 

None

1

0

1-4

1.10 (0.75, 1.60)

0.09 (-0.29, 0.47)

5-9

1.46 (0.92, 2.31)

0.38 (-0.09, 0.84)

10 or more

2.07 (1.30, 3.29)

0.73 (0.26, 1.19)

Natural hair color at age 15

 

 

Dark brown or black

1

0

Light brown

1.47 (1.02, 2.12)

0.39 (0.02, 0.75)

Blond

1.57 (1.09, 2.26)

0.45 (0.08, 0.81)

Red

2.23 (1.23, 4.05)

0.80 (0.20, 1.40)

Density of freckles on arms before age 20

 

 

None

1

0

Few

1.56 (1.05, 2.31)

0.44 (0.05, 0.84)

Several

1.87 (1.15, 3.06)

0.63 (0.14, 1.12)

A lot

2.69 (1.71, 4.24)

0.99 (0.54, 1.44)

Number of raised moles on both arms

 

 

None

1

0

1

1.29 (0.87, 1.90)

0.25 (-0.14, 0.64)

2

1.67 (0.98, 2.84)

0.51 (-0.02, 1.05)

3 or more 2.93 (2.03, 4.23) 1.08 (0.71, 1.44)
Prior non-melanoma skin cancer 3.81 (2.25, 6.47) 1.34 (0.81, 1.87)
aThe risk score was the sum of the products of the parameter estimates (betas, or log odds ratios) and the variable values, multiplied by 10 and rounded up or down as appropriate for ease of calculation
Table 2: Odds ratios and betas for melanoma from the final multivariate prediction model.