Risk level |
Risk score cutoff |
RRa |
Sensitivityb (%) |
Specificityc (%) |
5-yr PPV all agesd,g (%) |
5-yr PPV age 3 50d,h(%) |
5-yr NPV age 3 50d,I(%) |
Top 20% |
25 |
5.41 |
61 |
80 |
0.35 |
0.89 |
99.9 |
Top 15% |
28 |
5.42 |
50 |
85 |
0.38 |
0.98 |
99.8 |
Top 10% |
30 |
6.20 |
42 |
90 |
0.48 |
1.23 |
99.8 |
Top 5% |
34 |
7.35 |
29 |
95 |
0.66 |
1.69 |
99.8 |
aRR:Relative risk of melanoma comparing those considered high risk (those with a score at or above the cutoff value) to those considered low risk (those with a score below
the cutoff value)
bSensitivity: Proportion of melanoma cases in the study classified as high risk
cSpecificity: Proportion of controls in the study classified as low risk
dAll prevalence estimates obtained from http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2006/, accessed 13 July 2010.
e1-yrPPV all ages: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the same year, assuming a prevalence of newly
diagnosed cases of 23/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites)
f1-yrPPV age 50 or older: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites over age 50 considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the same year, assuming a
prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 59/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites age 50 or older)
g5-yrPPV all ages: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the next 5 years, assuming a prevalence of newly
diagnosed cases of 115/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whitesmultiplied by 5)
h5-yrPPV age 50 or older: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites over age 50 considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the next 5 years, assuming a
prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 295/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites age 50 or oldermultiplied by 5)
i5-yr NPV age 50 or older: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites over age 50 considered low risk who would not be diagnosed with melanoma in the next 5 years, assuming
a prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 295/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites age 50 or oldermultiplied by 5) |