Risk level

Risk score cutoff

RRa

Sensitivityb (%)

Specificityc (%)

5-yr PPV all agesd,g (%)

5-yr PPV age 3 50d,h(%)

5-yr NPV age 3 50d,I(%)

Top 20%

25

5.41

61

80

0.35

0.89

99.9

Top 15%

28

5.42

50

85

0.38

0.98

99.8

Top 10%

30

6.20

42

90

0.48

1.23

99.8

Top 5%

34

7.35

29

95

0.66

1.69

99.8

aRR:Relative risk of melanoma comparing those considered high risk (those with a score at or above the cutoff value) to those considered low risk (those with a score below the cutoff value) bSensitivity: Proportion of melanoma cases in the study classified as high risk cSpecificity: Proportion of controls in the study classified as low risk dAll prevalence estimates obtained from http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2006/, accessed 13 July 2010. e1-yrPPV all ages: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the same year, assuming a prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 23/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites) f1-yrPPV age 50 or older: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites over age 50 considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the same year, assuming a prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 59/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites age 50 or older) g5-yrPPV all ages: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the next 5 years, assuming a prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 115/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whitesmultiplied by 5) h5-yrPPV age 50 or older: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites over age 50 considered high risk who would be diagnosed with melanoma in the next 5 years, assuming a prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 295/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites age 50 or oldermultiplied by 5) i5-yr NPV age 50 or older: Estimated proportion of U.S. whites over age 50 considered low risk who would not be diagnosed with melanoma in the next 5 years, assuming a prevalence of newly diagnosed cases of 295/100,000 (the 2006 age-adjusted incidence in U.S. whites age 50 or oldermultiplied by 5)
Table 3: Relative risk (RR), sensitivity, and specificity for various risk score cutoffs and estimated positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) calculated for various populations and time periods.