| Study |
N |
Wins |
Years |
DHM
variables1 |
R2adj (%) explained by DHM variables2 |
Main explanatory
variable (r) |
Outliers
(1990–2013) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Km/h |
Time |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Km/h |
Time |
Y |
D |
Y |
D |
- |
| 1 (Lodewijkx & Brouwer, 2011) |
181 |
Stage race |
1947–2008 |
Y, D, B, NST, SR |
84*** |
98*** |
.79*** |
-.42*** |
-.60*** |
.92*** |
None |
| 2 (Lodewijkx & Brouwer, 2012) |
256 |
Stage race |
1903–2011 |
Y, D, B, NST, SR |
94*** |
90*** |
.92*** |
-.31*** |
-.68*** |
.85*** |
None |
| 3 (Lodewijkx & Verboon, 2013)3 |
62 |
Time trial
(50–61 km) |
1934–2010 |
Y, D, A |
58*** |
56*** |
.77*** |
-.16 |
-.71*** |
.41** |
None |
| 4 (Lodewijkx & Bos, 2014)3 |
100 |
Time trial (multiple winners) |
1949–2013 |
Y, D, A |
55*** |
98*** |
.73*** |
-.24* |
-.21* |
.98*** |
Indurain
(Tour, 1992) |
| 5 (Lodewijkx, 2013)4 |
19 |
Time trial (mountain) |
1958–2004 |
Y, CLI, A |
93*** |
88*** |
.48* |
.83*** |
.14 |
.94*** |
Berzin
(Tour, 1996) |
| 6 (Lodewijkx & Verboon, 2014)5 |
324 |
Time trial
(all) |
1933–2013 |
Y, D, SR |
60*** |
98*** |
.71*** |
-.28*** |
-.34*** |
.97*** |
Plaza
(Vuelta, 2005) |
Notes:
1 Y = Competition year. D = Distance of stage race / trial. B = Brutality rate. NST = Number of stages in the race. SR = Stage race (Tour vs. Giro vs. Vuelta). A = Comparisons of Armstrong vs. other riders. CLI = Climbing index. Findings concern observations across the Tour, Giro, and Vuelta.
2 % Performance differences (R2adj) explained by DHM variables. R2adj are rounded off.
3 These studies compared Armstrong's (A) time trial victories to other riders, demonstrated on flat and rolling terrain, excluded are mountain time trials.
4 We only examined mountain trials in the Tour de France.
5 Included in this study are all trials on flat and rolling terrain, excluded are prologues, mountain trials, and team time trials.
* p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p ≤ .001 |
