| Window of Detection(hrs) |
Test Sensitivity |
Doping Regime (weekly) |
Test predictability per person per week |
Probability of detection in a single test |
Number of tests (per year) |
Odds of escaping detection |
Odds of escaping detection in 15yrs career |
Sport with detection rate matching odds |
| 12 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.25 |
0.0071 |
12 |
12:1 |
1:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.25 |
0.0107 |
12 |
8:1 |
1:1 |
|
| 48 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.25 |
0.0286 |
12 |
3:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 72 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.25 |
0.0429 |
12 |
2:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.25 |
0.0714 |
12 |
1:1 |
0:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0011 |
2 |
461:1 |
31:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0016 |
2 |
307:1 |
20:1 |
|
| 48 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0043 |
2 |
115:1 |
8:1 |
Sailing, Athletics |
| 72 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0065 |
2 |
77:1 |
5:1 |
Basketball, Archery, Cycling, Rugby |
| 120 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0109 |
2 |
46:1 |
3:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.8 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0022 |
2 |
230:1 |
15:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.8 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0033 |
2 |
154:1 |
10:1 |
Aquatics, Sailing |
| 48 |
0.8 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0087 |
2 |
58:1 |
4:1 |
Basketball, Cycling |
| 72 |
0.8 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0130 |
2 |
38:1 |
3:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.8 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0217 |
2 |
23:1 |
2:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.1 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0003 |
2 |
1842:1 |
123:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.1 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0004 |
2 |
1228:1 |
82:1 |
|
| 48 |
0.1 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0011 |
2 |
461:1 |
31:1 |
|
| 72 |
0.1 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0016 |
2 |
307:1 |
20:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.1 |
1 |
0.038 |
0.0027 |
2 |
184:1 |
12:1 |
Shooting |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0001 |
2 |
3684:1 |
246:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0002 |
2 |
2456:1 |
164:1 |
|
| 48 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0005 |
2 |
921:1 |
61:1 |
|
| 72 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0008 |
2 |
614:1 |
41:1 |
Bobsleigh |
| 120 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0014 |
2 |
368:1 |
25:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0005 |
2 |
921:1 |
61:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0008 |
2 |
614:1 |
41:1 |
Bobsleigh |
| 48 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0022 |
2 |
230:1 |
15:1 |
Fencing |
| 72 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0033 |
2 |
154:1 |
10:1 |
Aquatics. Athletics |
| 120 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.038 |
0.0054 |
2 |
92:1 |
6:1 |
Cycling, Rugby |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.25 |
0.0036 |
12 |
23:1 |
2:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.25 |
0.0054 |
12 |
16:1 |
1:1 |
Bridge |
| 48 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.25 |
0.0143 |
12 |
6:1 |
0:1 |
Bodybuilding |
| 72 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.25 |
0.0214 |
12 |
4:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.25 |
0.0357 |
12 |
2:1 |
0:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.0089 |
24 |
5:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 18 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.0134 |
24 |
3:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 48 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.0357 |
24 |
1:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 72 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.0536 |
24 |
1:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.0893 |
24 |
0:1 |
0:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.125 |
0.0018 |
6 |
93:1 |
6:1 |
Triathalon |
| 18 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.125 |
0.0027 |
6 |
62:1 |
4:1 |
Equestrian, Rugby |
| 48 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.125 |
0.0071 |
6 |
23:1 |
2:1 |
Boules, Billiards, Motorcycle Racing, Powerlifiting |
| 72 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.125 |
0.0107 |
6 |
16:1 |
1:1 |
Bridge, Sambo |
| 120 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.125 |
0.0179 |
6 |
9:1 |
1:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.125 |
0.0036 |
6 |
47:1 |
3:1 |
Weightlifiting, Rollersport, Golf |
| 18 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.125 |
0.0054 |
6 |
31:1 |
2:1 |
Airsports |
| 48 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.125 |
0.0143 |
6 |
12:1 |
1:1 |
Muay Thai |
| 72 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.125 |
0.0214 |
6 |
8:1 |
1:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.125 |
0.0357 |
6 |
5:1 |
0:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.188 |
0.0027 |
9 |
41:1 |
3:1 |
Weightlifiting |
| 18 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.188 |
0.0040 |
9 |
28:1 |
2:1 |
Morocycle racing |
| 48 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.188 |
0.0107 |
9 |
10:1 |
1:1 |
|
| 72 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.188 |
0.0161 |
9 |
7:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.188 |
0.0269 |
9 |
4:1 |
0:1 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
0.188 |
0.0054 |
9 |
21:1 |
1:1 |
Kickboxing |
| 18 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
0.188 |
0.0081 |
9 |
14:1 |
1:1 |
Muay Thai |
| 48 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
0.188 |
0.0215 |
9 |
5:1 |
0:1 |
Bodybuilding |
| 72 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
0.188 |
0.0322 |
9 |
3:1 |
0:1 |
|
| 120 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
0.188 |
0.0537 |
9 |
2:1 |
0:1 |
|
|
