University of Limpopo, South Africa
Title: Modelling the efficacy of antiretroviral treatment in HIV patients: The case of Dr George Mukhari Academic Hospital in Tshwane, Gauteng province of South Africa
Marcus Motshwane is a Lecturer at Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Limpopo (Medunsa Campus).Pretoria-South Africa
Background: Survival analysis is aimed at estimating the probability of survival. The primary objective of this study is to use survival analysis to evaluate the ARV treatment efficacy in HIV/AIDS patients at the Dr George Mukhari Hospital. Methods: The Cox Proportional Hazards model was the most suitable method of data analysis as it enables us to obtain the Kaplan-Meier survival probability curves, the log-rank tests, life tables etc. Survival time was regressed on influential variables that affect survival based on the Cox Proportional Hazards model. At the 5% level of significance, significant hazard ratios were characterised by hazard ratios that are significantly different from ‘1’, P < 0.05, and 95% confidence interval (CI) hazard ratios that do not contain ‘1’.The statistical data analysis was conducted using STATA version 11 and SPSS version 21 software packages. Results: Of the total three hundred and eighteen (318) tested, two hundred and ninety two (292) were alive after treatment (92%) as compared to twenty six (26) that died (8%). Females were the most dominant group in this study where 217 of them made about 68.24% occurrence as compared to males with a total of 101 and about 31.76% occurrence. Conclusion: The results show a reduction in the number of deaths after ARV treatment as most patients had survived beyond the 1800 days or 60 months.The combination of Regimen 1 and 2 of ARV’s had a positive and significant impact on the lives of patients around Dr George Mukhari Hospital.
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