Δtmonths Mean probability (S.E.), %
P(SympF) P(NoED) P(TrueED) P(OverD)
Age at first screening t0= 40
6 84.50 (1.36) 2.97 (1.15) 11.89 (2.00) 0.53 (0.30)
12 84.59 (1.36) 6.10 (0.92) 8.76 (1.34) 0.44 (0.29)
24 84.69 (1.36) 9.41 (1.19) 5.45 (0.72) 0.34 (0.27)
Age at first screening t0= 50
6 85.05 (1.53) 2.86 (1.12) 11.52 (2.02) 0.55 (0.32)
12 85.14 (1.52) 5.86 (0.94) 8.52 (1.37) 0.46 (0.31)
24 85.24 (1.52) 9.05 (1.25) 5.33 (0.75) 0.36 (0.28)
Age at first screening t0= 60
6 87.11 (1.53) 2.42 (0.96) 9.87 (1.79) 0.59 (0.34)
12 87.21 (1.52) 4.95 (0.86) 7.34 (1.24) 0.49 (0.33)
24 87.32 (1.52) 7.63 (1.16) 4.65 (0.72) 0.39 (0.31)
Notes: Each row should add up to 100%, however, due to simulation accuracy, it is not exactly 100%; Δt=ti–ti-1 is the proposed time interval between screenings.
Abbreviations: Outcome: NoED: No Early Detection; OverD: Over Diagnosis; SympF: Symptom Free Life; TrueED: True Early Detection; SE: Standard Error.
Table 2: Projected probability of each category using MSKC-LCSP data.