Δt months Mean probability (S.E.), %
P(NoED|C) P(TrueED|C) P(OverD|C)
Age at first screening t0 = 40
6 19.49 (7.74) 77.03 (9.38) 3.48 (2.10)
12 39.92 (5.24) 57.16 (6.27) 2.92 (2.04)
24 61.80 (4.39) 35.90 (3.80) 2.30 (1.88)
Age at first screening t0 = 50
6 19.30 (7.61) 76.95 (9.37) 3.74 (2.25)
12 39.56 (5.16) 57.29 (6.24) 3.14 (2.19)
24 61.30 (4.49) 36.21 (3.81) 2.49 (2.03)
Age at first screening t0 = 60
6 18.87 (7.29) 76.49 (9.46) 4.63 (2.76)
12 38.76 (4.97) 57.34 (6.26) 3.90 (2.70)
24 60.17 (4.74) 36.73 (3.82) 3.10 (2.51)
Event C = {Diagnosed cancer cases: including both interval-incident and screen-detected cases}. The estimated conditional probability was calculated by , i=2, 3, 4, for each of the posterior samples, in percentage.
Table 3: Projected conditional probability given that it is a diagnosed cancer case.