| Δtmonths | Mean probability (95% C.I.), % | |
| P(TrueED|D) | P(OverD|D) | |
| Age at first screening t0 = 40 | ||
| 6 | 95.44 (86.82, 98.73) | 4.56 (1.27, 13.18) |
| 12 | 94.99 (84.88, 98.84) | 5.01 (1.16, 15.12) |
| 24 | 94.19 (82.18, 98.83) | 5.81 (1.17, 17.82) |
| Age at first screening t0 = 50 | ||
| 6 | 95.12 (85.99, 98.55) | 4.88 (1.45, 14.01) |
| 12 | 94.66 (84.01, 98.71) | 5.34 (1.29, 15.99) |
| 24 | 93.82 (81.26, 98.69) | 6.18 (1.31, 18.74) |
| Age at first screening t0 = 60 | ||
| 6 | 94.02 (83.10, 98.20) | 5.98 (1.80, 16.90) |
| 12 | 93.49 (80.89, 98.32) | 6.51 (1.68, 19.11) |
| 24 | 92.57 (77.93, 98.30) | 7.43 (1.70, 22.07) |
The estimated conditional probability was calculated by
, i=3, 4, for each of the posterior samples, in percentage.