Δtmonths Mean probability (95% C.I.), %
P(TrueED|D) P(OverD|D)
Age at first screening t0 = 40
6 95.44 (86.82, 98.73) 4.56 (1.27, 13.18)
12 94.99 (84.88, 98.84) 5.01 (1.16, 15.12)
24 94.19 (82.18, 98.83) 5.81 (1.17, 17.82)
Age at first screening t0 = 50
6 95.12 (85.99, 98.55) 4.88 (1.45, 14.01)
12 94.66 (84.01, 98.71) 5.34 (1.29, 15.99)
24 93.82 (81.26, 98.69) 6.18 (1.31, 18.74)
Age at first screening t0 = 60
6 94.02 (83.10, 98.20) 5.98 (1.80, 16.90)
12 93.49 (80.89, 98.32) 6.51 (1.68, 19.11)
24 92.57 (77.93, 98.30) 7.43 (1.70, 22.07)
Event D={Screen-detected case}.
The estimated conditional probability was calculated by , i=3, 4, for each of the posterior samples, in percentage.
Table 4: Projected conditional probability given that it is a diagnosed cancer case.