Strategy Description of Strategy Baseline (B) : Freeze routine coverage at the 2010 levels that achieved a 90% reduction in mortality relative to 2000* Stop SIAs (SS): Freeze routine coverage at 2010. No more SIAs after 2010. 95% Mortality reduction by 2015 Maintain SIAs and increase routine coverage by 3 percentage points per year from 2010 to 2015 98% Mortality reduction by 2020 Maintain SIAs and increase routine coverage by 2 percentage points per year from 2010 to 2020 Eradication 2020 (Erad2020): Eliminate endogenous transmission measles in every country by 2020. For countries above 70% coverage this is achieved by increasing coverage by 3 percentage points per year until 2020. For failed states and countries below 60% this implies best efforts at improving routine coverage and annual SIAs. Eradication 2025 (Erad2025): Eliminate endogenous transmission measles in the country by 2025 by increasing routine measles coverage by 3 percentage points per year till 2025 *India has not yet achieved the 90% mortality reduction and it is an exception. India’s baseline scenario would be to advance coverage to 90% mortality reduction levels by around 2013 and then to freeze routine coverage there.

Table 1: Scenarios tested.