Kamoru A. Lawal
Nigeria
Case Report
Simulating the Daily Evolution of West African Monsoon Using High Resolution Regional Cosmo-model: A Case Study of the First Half of 2015 over Nigeria
Author(s): Eniola Olaniyan, Ernest Afiesimama, Feyi Oni and Kamoru A. LawalEniola Olaniyan, Ernest Afiesimama, Feyi Oni and Kamoru A. Lawal
Understanding the dynamics and variability of the West African Monsoon (WAM) at daily time scales will improve skillful prediction of the onset and evolution of the monsoon and thus would contribute toward food security of Nigeria. This study, therefore, uses high resolution regional COSMO-model, a weather-mode model from the German Weather Service adopted by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, to study the daily evolution of WAM as well as the ability of the model to predict the daily characteristics of monsoon, for the first half of 2015, over Nigeria. Results show that, qualitatively, the model has the ability to predict the daily evolution of WAM, daily variability of rainfall, which includes the onset of the raining season as well as dry-spells, over Nigeria. The spatial correlations between the observation and the forecast are generally greater than 0.64, implying that the model, t.. View More»