The College of Textile-Design, Technology and Management, Belgrade, Serbia
Received Date: June 07, 2015; Accepted Date: June 09, 2015; Published Date: August 30, 2015
Citation: Colovic G (2015) Scenario Method for Defining the Strategy in the Garment Industry. J Textile Sci Eng 5:205. doi: 10.4172/2165-8064.1000205
Copyright: © 2015 Colovic G. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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Scenario method is a modern technique that provides a more qualitative description of evolution from present to future rather than insisting on numerical precision. That is a hypothetical sequence of events, designed to determine cause-effect links in the development of a particular event . That is a qualitative prediction method that starts from the goal and ways are explored how to achieve it.
The purpose of scenario method is to find fashion company in a better position when faced with an unexpected event than it would happen if the event came up to it unprepared. Unless those situations are predicted, a garment producer will not be able to respond as quickly as necessary in critical situations. If there is a pre-prepared plan, a garment producer responds faster, with less damage to its strategic position and more rationally.
According to many authors, the scenario is defined as a hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of placing the causal processes and decision points into the focus of attention. It responds to two types of questions:
- How precisely can a hypothetical situation happen, step by step?
- What alternatives are there for each participant, at every step to prevent, redirect or maintain a process?
Scenarios have value if they inform decision makers and influence decision making. Added value in decision-making scenario exists only if managers systematically use them to formulate questions about the present and future. At each step of development scenarios , the emphasis must be on the identification, choice and coordination of core concepts of management and knowledge about it. The steps of scenarios are:
(1) Establishing a driving force of wide application;
(2) Establishing dependence between acceptable trends;
(3) Combination in order to obtain a scenario.
There is no generally accepted methodology or procedure for creating scenarios and their usage in the process of strategic planning . The scenario is made for a period of five or ten years or more. Experience has shown that the scenario can be used as an information base to verify the alternative strategic options. They give a wider vision of alternative events, realizing the things to be supported or avoided (Figure 1).
A scenario is not an image of the future or a very precise prediction of the results of certain business activities. It helps to observe the moment of change in business conditions in the environment and how that changes will affect the operating results. For a garment producer it is of interest to have more scenarios that depict a number of alternative future situations . Each of these scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively explains future situations and their implications on business results. In scenarios future can be explained with more or less probability on that very way, with different estimations of opportunities and threats, with a different attitude (optimistic or pessimistic) towards the future.
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