Cutting Through the Fog: A Window into ComplexityJohn McCaskill*
University of Texas at Dallas Richardson, Texas, USA
- *Corresponding Author:
- John McCaskill
University of Texas at Dallas Richardson
E-mail: [email protected]
Received Date: November 30, 2015 Accepted Date: February 12, 2016 Published Date: February 24, 2016
Citation: McCaskill J (2016) Cutting Through the Fog: A Window into Complexity. J Pol Sci Pub Aff 4:192. doi:10.4172/2332-0761.1000192
Copyright: © 2016 McCaskill J. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Policy design takes place in an environment of extreme uncertainty and complexity. This paper addresses how we integrate human decision making capacity with the realities of complex systems in order to yield positive outcomes and avoid decision paralysis. It begins with a discussion of naturalistic or expert decision making and describes biases that can be introduced into the process through the use of heuristics which can result in suboptimal choices. From there, a high level description and overview of complexity science is presented in terms of an alternative paradigm to help explain why heuristics can be a double edged sword in decision making in a complex implementation environment. Finally, a new tool is described that may be useful in reviewing policy in the context of a vague and uncertain political and societal environment.