EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRENDS IN CASH CROP OUTPUT VOLATILITY AND AGRICULTURAL POLICYPERIODS IN NIGERIA
The study analyzed cash crop output volatility in different agricultural policy programme periods from 1961 to 2010 in Nigeria. Descriptive analysis and analysis of variance model was used to analyze the specific objectives.The results reveal that, the Pre-Operation Feed the Nation period (1961-1976) and Structural Adjustment Programme (1986-1993) period were the most volatile policy periods for most cash crop outputs in the country. Whereas, cash crop outputs were most stable during the Operation Feed the Nation period (1976-1979) and Green Revolution period (1980-1985). The result further reveals that the mean cash crop output volatility during post structural adjustment programme period was significantly different from other policy periods for most cash crop exception of coffee. The result implies that the impact of the current post structural adjustment agricultural policy on Cotton, Groundnut, Cocoa, Rubber and Oil palm crop output volatility in the country differs significantly from some previous agricultural policy programme periods. The result established the fact that the agricultural policy programmes actually influenced key cash crop outputs and their volatility; but these influences were mixed and inconsistence across cash crop enterprises and policy programme periods in the country. Following the results, we recommend that government should formulate appropriate specific cash crop policy packages as part of the holistic agricultural policy programme. This kind of policy programme would ensure quick intervention and promote result oriented cash crop policy programme in the country.