alexa Hydrological Response to Climate Change of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin: Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
ISSN : 2332-2594

Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting
Open Access

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Research Article

Hydrological Response to Climate Change of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin: Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Sintayehu Legesse Gebre1*, Fulco Ludwig2
1Department of Natural Resources Management, Jimma University, P.o.box 307, Ethiopia
2Department of Earth System Science, Wageningen University, P.o.box 47 6700AA, The Netherlands
Corresponding Author : Sintayehu Legesse Gebre
Department of Natural Resources Management
Jimma University, P.o.box 307, Ethiopia
Tel: +251-(0)47- 111-14-58
E-mail: [email protected]
Received November 16, 2014; Accepted December 20, 2014; Published December 22, 2014
Citation:Gebre SL, Ludwig F (2015) Hydrological Response to Climate Change of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin: Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). J Climatol Weather Forecasting 3:121. doi:10.4172/2332-2594.1000121
Copyright: ©2015 Gebre SL, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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Abstract

Climate change is likely to affect the hydrology and water resources availability of upper Blue Nile River basin. Different water resource development projects are currently existed and under construction in the region. In order to understand the future impacts of climate change, we assessed the hydrological response of climate change of four catchments (Gilgel Abay, Gumer, Ribb, and Megech) of the upper Blue Nile River basin using new emission scenarios based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Five biased corrected 50 kms by 50 kms resolution GCMs (Global Circulation Model) output of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios were used. The future projection period were divided in to two future horizons of 2030`s (2035-2064) and 2070`s (2071-2100). The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) was calibrated and validated for stream flow simulation. All the five GCMs projection showed that, maximum and minimum temperature increases in all months and seasons in the upper Blue Nile basin. The change in magnitude in RCP 8.5 emission is more than RCP 4.5 scenario as expected. There is considerable average monthly and seasonal precipitation change variability in magnitude and direction. Runoff is expected to increase in the future, at 2030`s average annual runoff projection change may increase up to +55.7% for RCP 4.5 and up to +74.8% for RCP 8.5 scenarios. At 2070`s average annual runoff percentage change increase by +73.5% and by +127.4% for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Hence, the increase in flow volume in the basin may have a significant contribution for the sustainability of existed and undergoing water development projects. Moreover; it will help for small scale farmer holders to harness water for their crop productivity. However, a precaution of mitigation and adaptation measures ought to be developed for possible flooding in the flood plains area of the River basin.

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