Modeling of Tea Production in Bangladesh Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) ModelAbdur Rahman*
Department of Statistics, ShahJalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh
- *Corresponding Author:
- Rahman A
Department of Statistics
ShahJalal University of Science and Technology
Tel: 880 821-713491
E-mail: [email protected]
Received Date: January 27, 2017; Accepted Date: April 21, 2017; Published Date: April 28, 2017
Citation: Rahman A (2017) Modeling of Tea Production in Bangladesh Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model. J Appl Computat Math 6: 349. doi: 10.4172/2168-9679.1000349
Copyright: © 2017 Rahman A. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to forecast the tea production by using time series data of twenty-four years from 1990-2013. The performance of these developed models was assessed with the help of different selection measure criteria and the model having minimum value of these criteria considered as the best forecasting model. Based on findings, it has been observed that out of eleven ARIMA models, ARIMA (1,1,2) is the best fitted model in predicting the production of tea in Bangladesh and the forecasted value of tea production in Bangladesh, for the year 2014, 2015 and 2016 as obtained from ARIMA (1,1,2) was obtained as 65.568 Million Kilogram, 67.867 Million Kilogram and 60.997 Million Kilogram.