Audrey W. Zhu and Halton Pi
Using historical weather forecast data downloaded from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s [NOAA] National Weather Service Digital Library, we performed statistical analysis on the forecast accuracies of temperature, probability of precipitation, quantitative precipitation and wind speed. The major findings of this study are: (1) There are significant variations in forecast accuracies at different geographical locations in the United States; (2) The overall accuracies of 3-day or longer temperature forecasts are similar in magnitude to the standard deviations of historical daily changes in temperature; (3) There are statistically significant biases in the forecasts of either large positive or negative changes in temperatures; (4) The observed probabilities of precipitation are significantly lower than forecasted probabilities for 2-day or longer horizons; (5) On the average, the 3-day or longer forecasts for quantitative precipitation tend to significantly under estimate actual amount for periods of heavy precipitation; and (6) Forecasters generally under predict wind speeds by a large margin for days when wind speeds exceed 20 mph. An improved weather forecast model can be constructed based on some of the empirical statistical parameters from this study.
