Journal of General Practice

The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on Health Indices, Murder and Mortality: A Case of Jamaica

Abstract

Paul Andrew Bourne, Mark Mills, Janinne Campbell-Smith, Charlene Sharpe-Pryce, Cynthia Francis, Ikhalfani Solan and Angela Hudson Davis

Background: A paucity of information exists in the literature that has seen a single study modeling macroeconomic indicators, murder and health indices (i.e., illness rate, health insurance coverage, health care utilization and mortality) in the English-speaking Caribbean. The current paper fills the gap in the literature. Objective: This paper examines how selected macroeconomic variables influence murder, mortality and illhealth. Methods: The data for this study are taken from publications of different governmental organizations, responsible for the collection of pertinent data for the government to carry out policy planning. Ordinary least square regression analyses were used to establish the model for 1) mortality, 2) murder and 3) ill-health. Results: There is a fluctuation of murder rates between the decades in the study period as evidenced by the fact that the average number of murders in Jamaica between 1969 and 1981 was 266. The following decade (1980-1989) saw an 85.3% increase, which subsequently saw a 43.4% reduction by the third decade of the study period (1990-1999). The last decade (2000-2009) saw a 93.5% increase in murders. For the studied period, there was a geometric progression in murders compared to a cyclical change in mortality. There was a strong correlation between murder and health insurance coverage (rs=0.960; P=0.0001), inflation (rs=-0.861; P=0.0001), exchange rate (rs=0.950; P=0.0001); a moderate relationship between mortality and health care utilization (rs=0.654; P=0.001) and no bivariate relationship existed between murder and illness (rs=-0.411, P=0.090). Conclusion: The reality is government should have a coherent policy in place to address these events, as every life lost through murder is important and represents a reduction in potential contribution to economic growth and development.