Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice
Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, 9 JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FA, UK
- *Corresponding Author:
- Kelly MJ
Department of Engineering
University of Cambridge
9 JJ Thomson Avenue
Cambridge CB3 0FA, UK
Tel: +44 (0) 1223 33300
Email: [email protected]
Received date: Jan 25, 2016; Accepted date: Feb 15, 2016; Published date: Feb 17, 2016
Citation: Kelly MJ (2016) Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 – An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice. J Geogr Nat Disast 6:155. doi:10.4172/2167-0587.1000155
Copyright: © 2016 Kelly MJ. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change. The disconnect between real-world historical data on the 100 years’ time scale and the current predictions provides a real conundrum when any engineer tries to make a professional assessment of the real future value of any infrastructure project which aims to mitigate or adapt to climate change. What is the appropriate basis on which to make judgements when theory and data are in such disagreement?