alexa A prediction rule for the development of arthritis in seropositive arthralgia patients.


Rheumatology: Current Research

Author(s): van de Stadt LA, Witte BI, Bos WH, van Schaardenburg D

Abstract Share this page

Abstract OBJECTIVE: To predict the development of arthritis in anticyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies and/or IgM rheumatoid factor positive (seropositive) arthralgia patients. METHODS: A prediction rule was developed using a prospective cohort of 374 seropositive arthralgia patients, followed for the development of arthritis. The model was created with backward stepwise Cox regression with 18 variables. RESULTS: 131 patients (35\%) developed arthritis after a median of 12 months. The prediction model consisted of nine variables: Rheumatoid Arthritis in a first degree family member, alcohol non-use, duration of symptoms <12 months, presence of intermittent symptoms, arthralgia in upper and lower extremities, visual analogue scale pain ≥50, presence of morning stiffness ≥1 h, history of swollen joints as reported by the patient and antibody status. A simplified prediction rule was made ranging from 0 to 13 points. The area under the curve value (95\% CI) of this prediction rule was 0.82 (0.75-0.89) after 5 years. Harrell's C (95\% CI) was 0.78 (0.73-0.84). Patients could be categorised in three risk groups: low (0-4 points), intermediate (5-6 points) and high risk (7-13 points). With the low risk group as a reference, the intermediate risk group had a hazard ratio (HR; 95\% CI) of 4.52 (2.42-8.77) and the high risk group had a HR of 14.86 (8.40-28.32). CONCLUSIONS: In patients presenting with seropositive arthralgia, the risk of developing arthritis can be predicted. The prediction rule that was made in this patient group can help (1) to inform patients and (2) to select high-risk patients for intervention studies before clinical arthritis occurs. This article was published in Ann Rheum Dis and referenced in Rheumatology: Current Research

Relevant Expert PPTs

Relevant Speaker PPTs

Recommended Conferences

Relevant Topics

Peer Reviewed Journals
Make the best use of Scientific Research and information from our 700 + peer reviewed, Open Access Journals
International Conferences 2017-18
Meet Inspiring Speakers and Experts at our 3000+ Global Annual Meetings

Contact Us

© 2008-2017 OMICS International - Open Access Publisher. Best viewed in Mozilla Firefox | Google Chrome | Above IE 7.0 version