alexa Development and validation of a model for predicting emergency admissions over the next year (PEONY): a UK historical cohort study.
Clinical Research

Clinical Research

Journal of Clinical Research & Bioethics

Author(s): Donnan PT, Dorward DW, Mutch B, Morris AD

Abstract Share this page

Abstract BACKGROUND: Current international health policy has emphasized the importance of managing long-term conditions in the community with the aim of preventing emergency hospitalizations. Previous algorithms and rules have been developed but are limited to those older than 65 years and generally only for readmission. Our aim was to develop an algorithm to predict emergency hospital admissions in the whole population of those 40 years or older. METHODS: The design was a historical cohort observational study from 1996 to 2004 with at least 1 year of follow-up and split-half validation, set in the population of Tayside, Scotland (n = 410 000). Participants were 40 years or older with a 3-year history of prescribed drugs and hospital admissions. The main outcome measure was first emergency hospital admission in the following year, analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 186 523 subjects 40 years or older were identified at baseline. A derivation data set (n = 90 522) yielded 6793 participants (7.5\%) who experienced an emergency hospital admission in the following year. Strong predictors of admissions were age; being male; high social deprivation; previously prescribed analgesics, antibacterials, nitrates, and diuretics; the number of respiratory medications; and the number of previous admissions and previous total bed-days. Discriminatory power was good (c statistic, 0.80) and split-half validation gave good calibration, especially for the highest decile of risk. CONCLUSIONS: A population-derived algorithm provided the first easy-to-use algorithm, to our knowledge, to predict future emergency admissions in all individuals 40 years or older. The model can be implemented at individual patient level as well as family practice level to target case management. This article was published in Arch Intern Med and referenced in Journal of Clinical Research & Bioethics

Relevant Expert PPTs

Relevant Speaker PPTs

Peer Reviewed Journals
 
Make the best use of Scientific Research and information from our 700 + peer reviewed, Open Access Journals
International Conferences 2017-18
 
Meet Inspiring Speakers and Experts at our 3000+ Global Annual Meetings

Contact Us

Agri, Food, Aqua and Veterinary Science Journals

Dr. Krish

agrifoodaquavet@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9040

Clinical and Biochemistry Journals

Datta A

clinical_biochem@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9037

Business & Management Journals

Ronald

business@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

Chemical Engineering and Chemistry Journals

Gabriel Shaw

chemicaleng_chemistry@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9040

Earth & Environmental Sciences

Katie Wilson

environmentalsci@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

Engineering Journals

James Franklin

engineering@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

General Science and Health care Journals

Andrea Jason

generalsci_healthcare@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9043

Genetics and Molecular Biology Journals

Anna Melissa

genetics_molbio@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9006

Immunology & Microbiology Journals

David Gorantl

immuno_microbio@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9014

Informatics Journals

Stephanie Skinner

omics@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9039

Material Sciences Journals

Rachle Green

materialsci@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9039

Mathematics and Physics Journals

Jim Willison

mathematics_physics@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9042

Medical Journals

Nimmi Anna

medical@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9038

Neuroscience & Psychology Journals

Nathan T

neuro_psychology@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9041

Pharmaceutical Sciences Journals

John Behannon

pharma@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9007

Social & Political Science Journals

Steve Harry

social_politicalsci@omicsonline.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9042

 
© 2008-2017 OMICS International - Open Access Publisher. Best viewed in Mozilla Firefox | Google Chrome | Above IE 7.0 version
adwords