alexa Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil.
Pharmaceutical Sciences

Pharmaceutical Sciences

Pharmaceutica Analytica Acta

Author(s): Degallier N, Favier C, Boulanger JP, Menkes C

Abstract Share this page

Abstract OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a 'susceptible-infectious-resistant' compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.
This article was published in Rev Saude Publica and referenced in Pharmaceutica Analytica Acta

Relevant Expert PPTs

Relevant Speaker PPTs

Recommended Conferences

Peer Reviewed Journals
Make the best use of Scientific Research and information from our 700 + peer reviewed, Open Access Journals
International Conferences 2017-18
Meet Inspiring Speakers and Experts at our 3000+ Global Annual Meetings

Contact Us

Agri, Food, Aqua and Veterinary Science Journals

Dr. Krish

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9040

Clinical and Biochemistry Journals

Datta A

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9037

Business & Management Journals


1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

Chemical Engineering and Chemistry Journals

Gabriel Shaw

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9040

Earth & Environmental Sciences

Katie Wilson

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

Engineering Journals

James Franklin

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

General Science and Health care Journals

Andrea Jason

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9043

Genetics and Molecular Biology Journals

Anna Melissa

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9006

Immunology & Microbiology Journals

David Gorantl

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9014

Informatics Journals

Stephanie Skinner

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9039

Material Sciences Journals

Rachle Green

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9039

Mathematics and Physics Journals

Jim Willison

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9042

Medical Journals

Nimmi Anna

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9038

Neuroscience & Psychology Journals

Nathan T

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9041

Pharmaceutical Sciences Journals

John Behannon

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9007

Social & Political Science Journals

Steve Harry

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9042

© 2008-2017 OMICS International - Open Access Publisher. Best viewed in Mozilla Firefox | Google Chrome | Above IE 7.0 version