Author(s): Kearney MT, Fox KA, Lee AJ, Prescott RJ, Shah AM,
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Abstract OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to explore the value of noninvasive predictors of death/mode of death in ambulant outpatients with chronic heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: Mortality in chronic HF remains high, with a significant number of patients dying of progressive disease. Identification of these patients is important. METHODS: We recruited 553 ambulant outpatients age 63 +/- 10 years with symptoms of chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class, 2.3 +/- 0.5) and objective evidence of left ventricular dysfunction (ejection fraction <45\%, cardiothoracic ratio >0.55, or pulmonary edema on chest radiograph). After 2,365 patient-years of follow-up, 201 patients had died, with 76 events due to progressive HF. RESULTS: Independent predictors of all-cause mortality assessed with the Cox proportional hazards model were as follows: a low standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals (SDNN); lower serum sodium and higher creatinine levels; higher cardiothoracic ratio; nonsustained ventricular tachycardia; higher left ventricular end-systolic diameter; left ventricular hypertrophy; and increasing age. Independent predictors of death specific to progressive HF were SDNN, serum sodium and creatinine levels. The hazard ratio of progressive HF death for a 10\% decrease in SDNN was 1.06 (95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.12); for a 2 mmol/l decrease in serum sodium, 1.22 (95\% CI, 1.08 to 1.38); and for a 10 micromol/l increase in serum creatinine, 1.14 (95\% CI, 1.09 to 1.19) (all p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In ambulant outpatients with chronic HF, low serum sodium and SDNN and high serum creatinine identify patients at increased risk of death due to progressive HF.
This article was published in J Am Coll Cardiol
and referenced in Journal of Clinical & Experimental Cardiology