Author(s): Martinsen N, Jrgensen ME, Bjerregaard P, Krasnik A, Carstensen B
OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and the associated burden to the health care system in Greenland posed by diabetic complications by 2014. The predictions were based on changes in demographic variables and obesity.
STUDY DESIGN: Projection model based on two cross-sectional population surveys from 1993 and 1999.
METHODS: The development in BMI was described and projected to 2014 under two assumptions: 1) distribution of BMI is constant from 1999, and 2) the trend in BMI found in the surveys will continue until 2014. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was predicted under these assumptions and based on the observed association between BMI and type 2 diabetes. The prevalence of complications was estimated using the 2nd assumption, as was the prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) and stroke in the non-diabetic population in 2014.
RESULTS: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was not predicted to increase by 2014 under the 1st assumption. It was predicted to increase from 11% to 23% for women, but not for men under the 2nd assumption. Approximately half of the cases of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors predicted by 2014 were attributable to diabetes.
CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was predicted to increase in Greenland, and the number of complications was predicted to double from 1999 to 2014. Both prophylactic and treatment initiatives are needed to deal with the extra burden posed by type 2 diabetes to the Greenlandic health care system in 2014.