alexa The age incidence of multiple sclerosis: a decision theory model.

Author(s): Morris JA

Abstract Share this page

Abstract It is proposed that multiple sclerosis (MS) arises as an auto-immune response to antigens shared by common commensal bacteria and brain tissues. In particular it is suggested that the causative bacteria are normally spread by the faecal-oral route but first exposure can occur in the nasopharynx, particularly following a viral respiratory infection, and this increases the risk of MS. The interaction between bacterial colonisation and the immune response is analysed in terms of an information model derived from statistical decision theory. The model predicts a finite chance of autoimmune disease on first exposure which rises with age at exposure. The predicted age incidence of MS, which is the resultant of the rising error function and the age incidence of first exposure to common bacteria, rises to a peak in the third decade and matches published age incidence data. Furthermore the model predicts that subsets of the population, such as women, in whom the risk of MS is increased will have an earlier mean age of onset. This accords with observation which is hitherto unexplained. The model also explains the decreased incidence of MS in equatorial regions, data on migration studies, and is consistent with the observation that the mean age of onset is not consistently lower in low incidence regions. It also offers an explanation for conflicting data on the effect of social class, economic conditions and birth order. The hypothesis is amenable to laboratory investigation and should be pursued.
This article was published in Med Hypotheses and referenced in

Relevant Expert PPTs

Relevant Speaker PPTs

Recommended Conferences

Recommended Journals

Relevant Topics

Peer Reviewed Journals
 
Make the best use of Scientific Research and information from our 700 + peer reviewed, Open Access Journals
International Conferences 2017-18
 
Meet Inspiring Speakers and Experts at our 3000+ Global Annual Meetings

Contact Us

Agri, Food, Aqua and Veterinary Science Journals

Dr. Krish

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9040

Clinical and Biochemistry Journals

Datta A

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9037

Business & Management Journals

Ronald

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

Chemical Engineering and Chemistry Journals

Gabriel Shaw

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9040

Earth & Environmental Sciences

Katie Wilson

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

Engineering Journals

James Franklin

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9042

General Science and Health care Journals

Andrea Jason

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9043

Genetics and Molecular Biology Journals

Anna Melissa

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9006

Immunology & Microbiology Journals

David Gorantl

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9014

Informatics Journals

Stephanie Skinner

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9039

Material Sciences Journals

Rachle Green

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9039

Mathematics and Physics Journals

Jim Willison

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9042

Medical Journals

Nimmi Anna

[email protected]line.com

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9038

Neuroscience & Psychology Journals

Nathan T

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9041

Pharmaceutical Sciences Journals

John Behannon

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001Extn: 9007

Social & Political Science Journals

Steve Harry

[email protected]

1-702-714-7001 Extn: 9042

 
© 2008-2017 OMICS International - Open Access Publisher. Best viewed in Mozilla Firefox | Google Chrome | Above IE 7.0 version
adwords