alexa THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN SI STAGED PROGRESSION MODEL: A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
Mathematics

Mathematics

Journal of Applied & Computational Mathematics

Author(s): Juliana Yukari Kodaira

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The SI (susceptible; infected) staged progression model is used for many diseases where the transmission probabilities vary as the viral load in an infected individual changes. We work with a version of the SI staged progres- sion model proposed by van den Driessche & Watmough (2002). In this paper, we present the effect of uniform random perturbations in the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) parameters using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, producing uncertainty in R 0 . The idea of perturbation is due to the fact that in nature these parameters aren’t constant. The results show that the uncertainty related to the basic reproduction number R 0 , performed by the Monte Carlo simulation technique, is useful to describe the effects of the parameters changes in the SI staged progression dynamic system model

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This article was published in International conference on chaos and Nonlinear dynamics and referenced in Journal of Applied & Computational Mathematics

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