Author(s): Stein CE, Birmingham M, Kurian M, Duclos P, Strebel P
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Abstract The estimation of the global burden of measles is challenging in the absence of reliable and comparable surveillance systems worldwide. A static model is described that enables estimation of measles morbidity, mortality, and disability for the year 2000 on the basis of country-specific information (i.e., demographic profile, vaccine coverage, and estimates of case-fatality ratios). This approach estimated a global incidence of 39.9 million measles cases, 777,000 deaths, and 28 million disability-adjusted life years. The World Health Organization regions of Africa and Southeast Asia had 70\% of incident cases and 84\% of measles-related deaths; 11 countries alone (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Uganda) account for 66\% of deaths. This approach quantifies the measles burden by considering country-specific indicators, which can be updated, permitting an assessment of country, regional, and global changes in the burden associated with measles infection.
This article was published in J Infect Dis
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