alexa The influence of rapid rural-urban migration on Korean national fertility levels.
Business & Management

Business & Management

Journal of Global Economics

Author(s): Lee BS, Farber SC

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Abstract PIP: A autoregressive model is applied to personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the 1974 Korean World Fertility Survey to assess the adaptation effect of rural-urban migration on migrant fertility and national fertility levels. The objective of this study is to provide policy makers in developing nations with a model that will enable them to quantify the effects of rapid urbanization on the fertility level of migrant women and thus on national fertility levels. The fertility of rural-urban migrants is on the average lower than that of rural stayers; this study supports the adaptation hypothesis and indicates that rural-urban migrants experienced a significant reduction in 5 year fertility rates from those of comparable rural stayers after migration to the urban area. In addition, the city specific effects of migration on fertility are of considerable importance; migrants to larger cities adapt more over their lifetime than migrants to smaller cities. The completed adaptation by postmarital, rural-urban migrants is largest among migrants who are least educated. The autoregressive model controls the fertility level at the beginning of the observed period; it is assumed that this is a proxy for family size preferences. Results show that the completed fertility of migrant women with less than 4 years of school is 1.9 children fewer than that of comparable rural stayers, 1 child fewer for migrant women with 4 to 6 years of school, and .8 children fewer for migrant women with at least 6 years of school. For Korea, the overall effects on national fertility of rural-urban migration represent a reduction of 1.79 births per woman for the 1965-1970 period; it is estimated that the 945,400 rural-urban women migrants of this period would avoid, on average, 71,300 births annually for their expected average 24 years of urban life.
This article was published in J Dev Econ and referenced in Journal of Global Economics

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