alexa Abstract | A Bayesian Approach to Compare the Statewise Dengue Death Counts in India

International Journal of Collaborative Research on Internal Medicine & Public Health
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Background: The Estimation of the true disease burden of dengue is a challenge, considering its varied epidemiology and dynamics of transmission. The true disease burden cannot be understood from ordinary count data on the number of deaths or number of infected cases.

Aim & Objectives: To compare the Indian states by the true disease burden due to dengue in the year 2010 by ranking with respect to their performance to deal with dengue death.

Methods: To compare the states by count data for observed deaths, the Bayesian approach is used. The source of data is the National Dengue Control Report published by National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme of 2009 and 2010 till the month of August. The statewise comparison of death due to dengue has been performed with all necessary computation done in the statistical software R.

Results: Certain states like Delhi, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh had very high incidence of dengue cases. But the mortality per unit exposure due to dengue is less in Delhi in contrast to other state in the country.

Conclusion: This statewise dengue death comparison can be helpful to authorize the state specific dengue control programme, as several issues which are not clear from count data can surface from such analysis.

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Author(s): Atanu Bhattacharjee Dibyojyoti Bhattacharjee


Bayesian estimation, Dengue, Public health, Shrinkage Estimator

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