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Endemicity (or disease intensity) is a measure of disease prevalence in a particular region and prevalence is the proportion of people infected at a given point in time. We predict the prevalence of malaria parasites at different locations to provide estimates of endemicity.
The vast majority of malaria disease and death occurs within these areas and the level of endemicity within these areas is of particular interest to groups involved in malaria control. Information about areas of unstable malaria transmission is important for regions that are close to malaria elimination and it is more appropriate to measure disease incidence.