John K Buor

John K Buor

Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration, Ghana

Title: Effect of frequent policy change on disaster preparedness and systemic resilience



Statement of the Problem: Reducing exposure to hazards, lessening vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, early warning, and improving preparedness for adverse events are all pre-requisites leading to disaster risk reduction. However, it appears that key industry players and stakeholders are not able to anticipate the effects of strategic risk management decisions. Blindfolded by cost management tendencies, supplies of resources leading to disaster risk reductions have kept dwindling over the years.

Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: We employ system dynamics (SD) modelling, with data sourced from elitist interviews, to analyse the structural behaviour of the interactions between Disaster Preparedness, Systemic Physics (or the physical environment), and Systemic Resilience in response to policy change in maritime logistics setting.

Findings: Results from our research suggests that frequent policy interventions geared towards disaster reduction has the potential to produce unintended consequences as levels of increased unacknowledged conditions.

Conclusion & Significance: Our research models therefore, could provide strategic policy makers with real-time decision evaluation tool to justify the choice of a set of alternative risk reduction interventions prior to decision implementation.


John K Buor is developing expertise in his research into effects of policy change on logistics/supply chain risk, security, emergency, and disaster/disruption management leading to uninterrupted flows in global logistics (i.e. hazard management and disaster preparedness). His research philosophy is founded on Giddens’ (1979) theory of structuration. He employs hybrid methodological approach (system dynamics simulation modelling techniques) to model the potential consequences of policy interventions on the structural behaviour of the interdependencies between/among factors that can influence global logistics/supply chain resilience and sustainability with a keen interest in promoting green logistics/supply chain and environmental safety

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