The observed time periods The sample-based prediction Sensitivity Specificity PPR PNR 1 month 625/1096 888/1024 625/761 888/1359 　 57% 87% 82% 65% 3 month 772/1585 1976/2261 772/1057 1976/2789 　 49% 87% 73% 71% 6 month 525/1142 1489/1697 525/733 1489/2106 　 46% 88% 72% 71% 12 month 335/851 1102/1254 335/487 1102/1618 　 39% 88% 69% 68% The observed time periods The individual-based prediction Sensitivity Specificity PPR PNR 1 month 977/1096 887/1024 977/1114 887/1006 　 89% 87% 88% 88% 3 month 1295/1585 2031/2261 1295/1525 2031/2321 　 82% 90% 85% 88% 6 month 864/1142 1530/1697 864/1031 1530/1808 　 76% 90% 84% 85% 12 month 556/851 1130/1254 556/680 1130/1425 　 65% 90% 82% 79% PPR: Predictive positive rate; PNR: Predictive negative rate

Table 2: The sensitivities, specificities, PPR and PNR for cutoff value 350 cells/ mm3 of CD4 for initiation of ART.

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