Probabilities of accumulated mutation.

Studies	Mutation	Rate of accumulation (per month) (95% CI)	Probabilities of accumulated mutations
Studies	Mutation	Rate of accumulation (per month) (95% CI)	0-3 month window	3-6 month window	6-9 month window	9-12 month window	At one year
Sigaloff et al. [3]	TAM2	0.07 (0.04-0.11)	0.1	0.27	0.4	0.52	0.32
	NRTI-associated	0.03 (0.01-0.06)	0.04	0.13	0.2	0.27	0.16
	Any NNRTI -associated	0.05 (0.03-0.09)	0.07	0.2	0.31	0.41	0.25
Cozzi-Lepri et al. [4]	Any TAM mutation	0.02	0.03	0.09	0.14	0.19	0.11

Table 1: Probabilities of accumulated mutation for virological failure. ¹We assumed virological failure distributed uniformly during one year, 25% of failures fail in the period 0-3 months after the previous viral load test, a further 25% in the period 3-6 months, 25% during 6-9 months and the final 25% during the period 9-12 months since the last viral load test.²Thymidine Analogue Mutation (TAM). 3Yearly rate was given in the Cozzi_Lepri, et al. study and therefore confidence interval for monthly rate cannot be calculated.

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