alexa The global warming impact on the North Eurasian ecosystems, retroanalysis for the projection

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The global warming impact on the North Eurasian ecosystems, retroanalysis for the projection

The paleogeographic analog method has been applied to estimate future changes in the state of the main components of the environment of the East European Plain at three time intervals within the 21st century (the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s). Two warm epochs of the past, the Holocene optimum (c.5.5 kyr BP) and the Mikulino (Eemian) interglacial optimum (c.125 kyr BP) have been chosen as paleoanalog. In the first decades of the 21st century the most probable changes involve herbaceous plants and tree regrowth. It will only be by the end of the century that tree-species penetration of new area and shifts of zonal boundaries may be expected. The predicted increase in potential evaporation may result in a reduction of wetland areas and slower peat formation. In the north of the plain, soil-forming processes will presumably respond to warming mainly via accelerated humification. Somewhat enhanced leaching would be typical for the subzone of podzolic soils at the end of century, thus bringing about the initial phase of sod-podzolic soil formation.

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