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Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield and Variability; an Analysis of Disaggregate Level in the Southwestern Part of Bangladesh Especially Jessore and Sathkhira Districts

Climate Change is a hot issue in the world. Effect of climate change on yield of two varieties of boro rice has been assessed using the CERES Rice model of the DSSAT modeling system. The yield of BR3 and BR14 boro varieties for the years 2008, 2030, 2050 and 2070 have been simulated for 12 locations (districts) of Bangladesh, which were selected from among the major rice growing areas in different regions of Bangladesh. The CERES-Rice model uses a detailed set of crop specific genetic coefficients for predicting yield (BR3 and BR14) because “genetic coefficients” for these varieties are available in the DSSAT modeling system. Available data on soil and hydrologic characteristics of these locations, and typical crop management practice for boro rice were used in the simulation.

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