Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) is the principal source of food and livelihood security for billions of people of India as well as south Asia. Studies analyzing the behavior of water resources under climate change indicate significant impact on the mean annual discharge, which is governed by the changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation distributions. Changes in reservoir storage due to modest change in natural inflow have the ability to potentially change the energy production, flood generation, and control measure. Several studies in the recent past have analyzed the climate change over the IGB. However, there is a lack of general agreement about the magnitude, and even direction, of trends in rainfall as well as temperature. This lack of agreement may be due to various factors, e.g. exact extent of study domain (for spatial averaging), analysis method (parametric or non-parametric), and source of the gridded data. Climate is a very complex and nonlinear system consisting of a wide spectrum of variabilities within its physio-dynamical process. The simplest among them is the linear trend. Considering the entire study domain as a single entity, we can explore the mean variable trend over the region. However, when we extract a single trend response (mean response) for a region we lose the information of the geographical variation of the trend. Furthermore, given the complexity of the climate system, it may be possible that a single response is not enough to explain the total trend variation. Read more..

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