Abstract

The paper analyses factors influencing the agricultural adaptation practices in embankment and non-embankment areas of lower Ayeyarwady delta based on the information collected through a survey of 240 sampled households mostly practicing rice farming. Farmers in both areas have adopted several agronomic practices to adapt with rainfall variability and soil and water salinization due to sea level rise. A multivariate probit model employed to estimate the simultaneous interdependent decisions by farm households explained the factors influencing the adaptation of rice farmers to respond to the rainfall variability and salinity. Irrespective of correlation signs, the most significant determinants in adaptations of non-embankment area are farm size, farm income, non-farm income, training and lowland followed by educational level, family agricultural labor, land ownership, farming experience and the institutional credit. In the embankment area, five variables out of 12; namely, farm size, farm income, training frequency, credit and lowland are most influential on the adoption of agricultural adaptation practices. The poor linkage of extension and training programs reflected the poor lowland soil condition and cultural practices. Although double cropping of rice in monsoon and summer has provided higher cropping intensity and farm income, it has promoted the soil salinity and environmental unsustainability. Policy instruments are therefore suggested for an effective implementation of soil conservation and integrated farming system in lowland rainfed rice-based cropping system.

Keywords: Agricultural adaptation; Rainfall variability; Salinity; Multivariate probit model; Ayeyarwady delta