alexa Modeling Impact of Climate Change and Variability on So
ISSN: 2157-7617

Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
Open Access

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Research Article

Modeling Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Sorghum Production in Southern Zone of Tigray, Ethiopia

Gebrekiros G1*, Araya A2 and Yemane T2
1Tigray Agricultural Research Institute, Abergelle Agricultural Research Center, Abi-Adi, Ethiopia
2Department of Crop and Horticultural Sciences, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 3057, Mekelle, Ethiopia
*Corresponding Author : Gebrekiros G
Tigray Agricultural Research Institute Abergelle
Agricultural Research Center, Abi-Adi, Ethiopia
Tel: (+251) 34 440 2801
E-mail: [email protected]
Received December 02, 2015; Accepted December 10, 2015; Published December 16, 2015
Citation: Gebrekiros G, Araya A, Yemane T (2016) Modeling Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Sorghum Production in Southern Zone of Tigray, Ethiopia. J Earth Sci Clim Change. 7:322. doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000322
Copyright: © 2016 Gebrekiros G, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
 

Abstract

Even though, there is a general understanding on the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural crops,
the spatial and temporal variability of these impacts remains yet uncertain. Thus, modeling the likely impact of climate
change on cereal crops at local level is crucial for developing possible future options of adaptation and mitigation
strategies. This research was conducted with the objective of modeling the impact of climate change and variability
on sorghum production. Hence, calibration and evaluation of agricultural production system simulator (APSIM) model
was conducted using four years research data (2006 to 2009) and its performance was assessed using coefficient of
determination (r2), root mean square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (d). According to the HadGEM2-ES model,
an increase of maximum (5.9°C) and minimum (6.4°C) temperature was revealed in the end term (2080s) over the
base year. Similarly precipitation was predicted to increase by 27% in the end term while almost constant for the other
periods. The monthly accumulated heat unit was increased in all periods and this has shortened the maturity date of
sorghum by about a week compared to the historical. Keeping the current sowing window (April) and other management
activities the same, future Sorghum yield has simulated to decrease between 5% and 24%. Using both the historical and
predicted climate data, sowing on March followed by April has shown a reasonable yield advantage in both RCPs. The
response of the different sorghum cultivars to the future climate changes should further be studied for deciding which
cultivar could give a better yield for the future under different management options.

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