Modelling the Climatic Variability in the Niger Delta Region: Influence of Climate Change on Hydrology | OMICS International| Abstract
ISSN: 2157-7617

Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
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  • Research Article   
  • J Earth Sci Clim Change 2015, Vol 6(6): 284
  • DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000284

Modelling the Climatic Variability in the Niger Delta Region: Influence of Climate Change on Hydrology

Agumagu O* and Todd M
Department of Geography, University of Sussex, UK
*Corresponding Author : Agumagu O, Department of Geography, University of Sussex, UK, Tel: +44 1273 877238 , Email: [email protected]

Received Date: Jun 17, 2015 / Accepted Date: Jul 16, 2015 / Published Date: Jul 26, 2015


With substantial variations to flood occurrence predicted as a result of climate change it becomes significant to investigate how global hydrological models process climate-forcing data. The paper presents reasonable analyses of projected hydrological effects of climate change on the Niger Delta region, Nigeria. Runoff simulated represent the present and future flood risk for the catchment of the River Niger using Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) from EU WATCH project driven by three GCMs. The simulated discharges are compared with the monthly gauge measurement along the River Niger from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). A period of (1970-2050) was chosen to understand the climatic variability across the Niger Delta region. The GHMs under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario were used to provide future climate scenarios over the Niger River. The hydrological models from EU WATCH project were used to calculate flood extents for different model outputs. The simulation shows clears trends of increased in river discharge over the catchment although uncertainty cannot be over role. Considering the future climate suggests that river flow from the basin could be substantially increased, especially in the long term when compare to the reference period. It is not applicable to formulate precise recommendations for management of runoff in the Niger Delta region as Todd highlighted that the degree of uncertainty in future projections of river flow is consider as a constrained towards developing applicable adaptation activities. The rationale behind this work is the need to understand in clear terms the climate change threats on the Niger Delta region; this will form a practical basis for developing adaptation strategies to manage future climate risks.

Keywords: Climatic variability; Hydrology; Runoff; Rainfall; Quantification; Venerability; Adaptation; Flooding; Uncertainty; Climate change

Citation: Agumagu O, Todd M (2015) Modelling the Climatic Variability in the Niger Delta Region: Influence of Climate Change on Hydrology. J Earth Sci Clim Change 6: 284. Doi: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000284

Copyright: © 2015 Agumagu O, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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