Abstract

For a variety of reasons, predicting where future surface coal mining will take place in Appalachia is difficult. Forecasts of future coal production do not directly predict changes in site of future coal output, but economic and regulatory considerations have an impact on the coal mining industry. Considering the potential environmental effects of surface coal mining, decision-makers would find it useful to estimate where future activity would take place. This study's objective was to provide a strategy for estimating future surface coal mining extents in light of shifting economic and governmental projections until the year 2035 [1]. This was done by combining a spatial model with projections of production and demand to forecast changes in land cover on a scale of 1 km2. These two inputs may be combined using a ratio that connected coal extraction amounts to unit area extent. As a result, the Appalachian region, which includes the northern, central, southern, and eastern coal districts of Illinois, received a spatial distribution of probabilities distributed over predicted demand. The findings can be applied to more effectively plan for changes in land use and potential cumulative repercussions.