Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential Distribution of Lantana camara
|Neena Priyanka* and Joshi PK
|Department of Natural Resources, TERI University, New Delhi, India
|Corresponding Author :
Department of Natural Resources
TERI University, New Delhi, India
|Received August 05, 2013; Accepted September 20, 2013; Published September 28, 2013
|Citation: Priyanka N, Joshi PK (2013) Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential Distribution of Lantana camara. J Earth Sci Clim Change 4:164. doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000164
|Copyright: © 2013 Priyanka N, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Climate change appears to be affecting global patterns of invasive species distribution. Forecasts based on ecological niche modeling suggest that greater impacts can be expected in the future. However, such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding the future climate conditions and invasion potential of a species. This study explores the relationship between climate change and potential distribution of Lantana camara in the National Parks of Jim Corbett and Rajaji (Uttarakhand, India). Using three representative climate change models viz., CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), CCCMA (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) and HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research’s General Circulation Model) across the time slices 2020 to 2080 under two regional climate change scenarios A2a and B2a, Lantana camara potential distribution models were derived. The model projections were in consensus that invasion range was likely to expand and infestation would be more severe under the A2a scenario indicating that the species may prefer warmer conditions. Taken together, the modeled results suggest that in the future, the two National Parks may be impacted largely by the gregarious presence of Lantana camara. Predictive models can provide resource managers with a tool for the early detection of invasive species and help circumvent negative ecological impacts resulting in substantial economic savings.