A Mathematical Model of Bioterrorist Attack Risk Assessment
- *Corresponding Author:
- Jovanovic Larisa, PhD
University ALFA, Palmira Toljatija 3
Tel: 381 64 6125 006
Fax: 381 11 3244 248
E-mail: [email protected]
Received Date: April 17, 2011; Accepted Date: July 10, 2012; Published Date: July 16, 2012
Citation: Vladan R, Goran B, Larisa J (2012) A Mathematical Model of Bioterrorist Attack Risk Assessment. J Bioterr Biodef 3:114. doi: 10.4172/2157-2526.1000114
Copyright: © 2012 Vladan R, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
The authors propose a bioterrorism risk assessment model comprising 22 qualitative and 10 quantitative parameters. Scores 0 and 1 refer to low and high probability of a bioterrorist attack, respectively. Vulnerability analysis is related to targets, while feasibility analysis refers to perpetrators, agents and means/media of delivery. The model is applied on the US anthrax attack in 2001. Mathematical modeling is also proposed to express the risk of human losses in a bioterrorist attack. The model may be helpful in predicting and preventing bioterrorist attacks.