A Mathematical Model of Bioterrorist Attack Risk Assessment | OMICS International | Abstract
ISSN: 2157-2526

Journal of Bioterrorism & Biodefense
Open Access

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Research Article

A Mathematical Model of Bioterrorist Attack Risk Assessment

Radosavljevic Vladan1,2, Belojevic Goran3 and Jovanovic Larisa4*

1Headquarters of The Serbian Medical Corps, Serbia

2Military Academy, Belgrade, Serbia

3Institute of Hygiene and Medical Ecology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia

4University Alfa, Belgrade, Serbia

*Corresponding Author:
Jovanovic Larisa, PhD
University ALFA, Palmira Toljatija 3
Belgrade, Serbia
Tel: 381 64 6125 006
Fax: 381 11 3244 248
E-mail: [email protected]

Received Date: April 17, 2011; Accepted Date: July 10, 2012; Published Date: July 16, 2012

Citation: Vladan R, Goran B, Larisa J (2012) A Mathematical Model of Bioterrorist Attack Risk Assessment. J Bioterr Biodef 3:114. doi: 10.4172/2157-2526.1000114

Copyright: © 2012 Vladan R, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.


The authors propose a bioterrorism risk assessment model comprising 22 qualitative and 10 quantitative parameters. Scores 0 and 1 refer to low and high probability of a bioterrorist attack, respectively. Vulnerability analysis is related to targets, while feasibility analysis refers to perpetrators, agents and means/media of delivery. The model is applied on the US anthrax attack in 2001. Mathematical modeling is also proposed to express the risk of human losses in a bioterrorist attack. The model may be helpful in predicting and preventing bioterrorist attacks.