Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
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The summer monsoon sometimes brings severe droughts and intense flooding in many parts of the world including South
Asian countries like Pakistan. So, an essential question arises ?how can we contribute better to manage the water resources
of the region for the societal needs?. By data analysis, the basis of the dynamical processes associated with upper tropospheric
conditions during the climatological mean Pakistan Summer Monsoon (PSM) and its extreme events has been developed in the
current study. During PSM mature phase, the climatological-mean structure of atmosphere favors convective activity compared
to premonsoon phase, by weakening the mid-upper level subsidence together with the increasing of moisture flux in the lower
troposphere from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Specifically, the upper-level convergence and subsidence observed over Pakistan
during pre-monsoon phase reallocates to northwest of Pakistan during mature phase. However, PSM extreme dry (wet) events
were closely related with the upper tropospheric cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly northwest of Pakistan and the associated cold
(warm) temperature anomaly. This anomalous state of upper tropospheric cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation is accompanied
with the anomalous upper level convergence (divergence) around Pakistan, which anomalously weakens (strengthens) the
climatological mean PSM trough to suppress (enhance) the PSM activities. We found two possibilities i.e. Matsuno-Gill type
atmospheric response from the tropics and/or the Rossby wave train along the Asian Jet to trigger, reinforce, and maintain the
upper-tropospheric cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation. However what (i.e. source) triggers the circulation anomaly from the
tropics and/or extratropics needs further investigations to reach a definite conclusion.
Shakil Ahmad has completed his PhD at the age of 37 years from the University of Tokyo and presently working as Project Researcher since October
2011 at the University of Tokyo, Japan. He has published more than 5 papers in the reputed journals and also presented his PhD research in reputed
couple of international conferences, like AGU, WCRP, EGU, etc.
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