Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
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This paper discusses results of the largest downscaling experiment ever conducted for Africa. The experiment was conducted
in order to gain more insight into the regional climate futures of West and East Africa with focus on African major cities.
The currently observed strong seasonal rainfall cycle in Dar es Salaam will not change significantly. However, the individual
ensemble members indicate that significant increases in rainfall totals during the period of ?long rains? are plausible. Daily
mean temperatures increase in the order of 1.5 to 2?C is projected by the ensemble average and most ensemble members. The
projections for Addis Ababa show very similar results.
For Ouagadougou, some ensemble members project significant increases in rainfall, whilst others project much drier
summers. Temperature increases in the order of 1.5 to 2?C are projected by the ensemble average and most ensemble members,
with relatively large increases projected for winter and smaller increases projected for summer.
Douala experiences a wet, tropical monsoonal climate. The rainfall regime will not change significantly regarding its seasonal
cycle, but significant reductions in the summer monsoonal rainfall, in the order of 50 mm per month, are projected by the
ensemble average. The projections for the future temperature do not show a homogeneous picture.
St. Louis exhibits a very dry climate and the seasonal rainfall cycle is not projected to change significantly. Quantitatively,
slight rainfall increases are plausible during the boreal summer, as indicated by the ensemble average. Temperature increases in
the order of 1.5 to 2?C are projected by the ensemble average.
As a visiting principal researcher at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Meraka Institute, Ingo Simonis has been appointed scientific
coordinator of international research and development programs. He is an accomplished leader in the field of geospatial interoperability with a
proven track record in architecting and implementing geospatial technologies, standards and web services.
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