Impacts Of Climate Change On Large-scale Weather Driven Energy System Design Decisions For The 21st Century | 96886
Environment Pollution and Climate Change
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Increasing global warming and the resulting climatic changes are likely to advance the weather-related risks that are facing
many different human and natural systems. In the attempt to cushion these effects, mitigation strategies that rely on lowcost
weather driven variable renewable energy technologies are gaining ground, and installed renewable energy generation
capacities are increasing significantly. We present a study on, to what extend the weather is changing in a way that also directly
impacts the best system design decisions for weather-driven sustainable energy systems. The latest generation of IPCC???s
climate projections, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been used to represent a broad range of climate outcomes during the
21st century. These are strongly influenced by climate policies representing the latest Paris agreement, imposition of high
global greenhouse gas emission prices and lack of climate policies, respectively. On behalf of the EURO-CORDEX project,
three hourly climate data have been provided from six different high-resolution regional climate models for Europe. We have
then applied state-of-art methods to generate bias corrected wind and solar power production time series for the 21st century,
and to correct the electric consumption profiles for heating and cooling for 30 European countries. To assess the far future
impacts of climate change, the production and consumption profiles are applied to a fully connected, highly-renewable, largescale
European energy system. As a result, we found small changes in the relevant energy system key metrics of the combined
system dynamics compared to historical values. We concluded that the effect of climate change can most likely be ignored in
the context of energy system design for the 21st century. However, in correspondence with the literature, impacts of climate
change are more prominent through the demand and these strongly outweigh the energy supply side impacts.
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Kozarcanin Smail is passionate in understanding and proposing ways of how the humanity is able to mitigate climate change during the 21st century. This interest has led him to join the Aarhus University, Sustainable Energy System group where he is employed as a PhD Fellow. He has his expertise within the subject of climate change impacts on future highly renewable large scale energy systems.